Last Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it would maintain its additional cut of one million barrels of oil per day until the end of the year. Russia followed suit by reiterating its intention to maintain its additional reduction of 300,000 barrels per day until the end of December. At the same time, Alexander Valentinovich Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, specified that this cup would be reviewed “next month” to consider increasing or reducing it, introducing a new unknown, while Saudi Arabia maintained its prices. to Asia in response to shrinking refinery margins.
Investors interpreted this news negatively, as it signaled a possible weakness in overall demand, exacerbated by reports of Chinese exports contracting in October. Concerns about oil supplies due to geopolitical tensions (Israel – Hamas war in Gaza, Editor’s note) at the beginning of October (decelerating) gave way to the growing supply of oil from the United States, Brazil and the Guyana, but also Russian oil exports in a context of global economic slowdown.
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The Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency have both validated these fears: the former by forecasting that by 2024 per capita gasoline demand in the United States would fall to its current level the lowest in two decades (at a time when American oil production reached a record level above thirteen million barrels per day), the second anticipating that world markets would fall into surplus next year due to a 50% slowdown in the growth of oil demand (by one million barrels per day). OPEC has not yet revised this demand downward.
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On November 15, the Energy Information Administration released weekly data on oil stocks. The markets are counting on an increase of 12 million barrels. If confirmed, it would be the largest increase since February. The OPEC+ alliance meets on November 26.
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Alain Corbani, head of raw materials at Montbleu Finance and manager of the Global Gold and Precious fund