Investing.com — The Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Supervision and Regulation report signals potential headwinds for the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2025, according to TD Cowen.
The report found that two-thirds of 23 banks that manage at least $100 billion in assets were rated less-than-satisfactory for factors such as capital planning, liquidity management or governance and controls.
“We view this as an indication that bank M&A may remain challenging next year even after Donald Trump becomes President,” TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note.
The findings by the Fed indicate that significant supervisory issues could deter regulatory approval for bank mergers. Seiberg notes that implications will need to resolve those concerns “if they intend to buy another bank.”
The report highlighted that while the issues did not generally pertain to capital, there are ongoing weaknesses in managing interest rate and liquidity risks, and concerns with governance and controls, specifically mentioning operational resilience and cybersecurity, as well as compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering regulations.
TD Cowen pointed out that the assessment excludes the eight Global Systemically Important (G-SIBs), as government policy currently prevents them from acquiring other banks.
“That means the Fed’s assessment only covers 15 banks that might be in the market to do deals,” Seiberg said. “Yet, we see no reason to believe why a big bank with less than $100 billion of assets would not have similar issues as a bank above $100 billion.”
Thus, the analyst views this as a broad warning for regional bank mergers rather than just being limited to institutions with over $100 billion in assets under management.
Seiberg also points out that these issues could potentially be addressed in the context of a merger, but it is unclear whether this is feasible based on the information provided in the report.
TD Cowen concurs with the Bank Policy Institute’s criticism that the deficiencies are often subjective and difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the expectation is that regulators will demand resolution of these issues before greenlighting any bank M&A deals.
The firm also emphasizes that the obstacles to bank consolidation are likely to persist even after the inauguration of Donald Trump, citing not only populist elements within his political coalition but also these supervisory concerns as potential deterrents for bank M&A activity.
