- Fed policymakers’ comments on policy outlook will be scrutinized by investors this week.
- Markets see a waning probability of a Fed policy hold in September.
- Fed rate outlook could influence the US Dollar’s performance against its major rivals.
Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches throughout this week as investors reassess the interest rate outlook following the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a no change in the Fed’s policy rate in September holds around 35%.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, NY Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are among the Fed officials that are set to speak on Tuesday.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said earlier in the day that the Fed has to be cautious about the first rate move, adding that it may need to be later in order to not stoke pent-up exuberance for investment and other spending. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that he needs to see several more months of good inflation data before being comfortable to support an easing in the policy.
Fed’s Bostic: Fed has to be cautious about first rate move.
Fed’s Waller: Several more months of good inflation data needed before supporting easing in policy.
The Fed has adopted a cautious tone regarding the timing of the policy pivot following the stronger-than-expected inflation readings in the first quarter of the year. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 15 that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% on a yearly basis in April. This reading followed the 3.8% increase recorded in March and came in line with the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI both rose 0.3% after rising 0.4% in March. The US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure as market participants assessed the inflation data and the USD Index fell to its lowest level in over a month, losing over 0.7% on a weekly basis.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted on Monday that, while she expects shelter inflation to slowly improve, she said that she doesn’t expect progress to be quick. Fed’s Daly also noted that she is not confident that inflation is sustainably coming down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said that the Fed is in a good position to hold the policy steady and watch the economy, per Reuters. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair of the Board of Governors Phillip Jefferson acknowledged that April’s better inflation reading was encouraging and added that it was too early to tell if the recent slowdown in disinflationary process will be long-lasting.
Last week, Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman said that progress on inflation may not be as consistent as many hoped. Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasized that maintaining the current levels of Fed policy will aid in returning still-elevated inflation to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told CNBC last Thursday that the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that inflation was not where the Fed is trying to get. Finally, New York Fed President Williams argued that there was no need for a rate cut in the near term.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
