Months of feverish negotiations, in different cities and at multiple levels, have gotten Israel and Hamas closer to striking a ceasefire deal. But even if an agreement is reached – still far from certain – it could end up lasting only weeks before it collapses and the war in Gaza resumes.
As senior negotiators prepare to meet this weekend in Cairo, there are still several sticking points in the talks over the potential three-phase agreement. But Israel has made it clear that following the initial six-week phase, a break in the fighting may be just that and it is not ready to agree to a permanent ceasefire.
“I am ready to do a partial deal, it is no secret, that will bring back some of the people,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 in late June. “But we are committed to continue the war after the pause in order to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas. I will not give up on this.”
There’s no indication that Israel’s position has changed and the fact this stance doesn’t violate the agreement being discussed represents a breakthrough for Israel in the negotiations. It essentially allows Israel – and Hamas – to abandon discussions after the six-week first phase and resume the war.
That breakthrough was a concession by the Palestinian militant group, which has been pushing for the temporary pause to seamlessly transition to a permanent ceasefire and the war to end.
The sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu this week, Riki Baruch, told CNN her takeaway from the meeting was “the prime minister’s promise to defeat Hamas, and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns.”
The sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu this week, Riki Baruch, told CNN her takeaway from the meeting was “the Prime Minister’s promise to defeat Hamas, and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns.”
Knowing that the long-sought-after agreement wouldn’t guarantee an end to the war, US officials have lowered their expectations and focused on getting first to a period of calm, even if it’s technically just temporary, hoping that enough pressure would build on multiple fronts during the pause to prevent the reignition of violence.
“What we’re focused on right now is getting a ceasefire deal in place, getting those hostages home, getting six weeks of calm,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week. “That’s really what our goal is right now.”
A ceasefire deal that leads to a pause in fighting would be welcomed by countless people on both sides. Palestinians in Gaza, almost all of whom have been displaced, would get a respite after almost a year of continuous Israeli bombing, along with desperately needed aid. Israeli families would get hostages or their remains home after 10 painful months of waiting.
Huge challenges remain if initial deal is reached
But as complicated as the hurdles are to reaching this first stage of an agreement, even tougher challenges loom before Israel will agree to end the war.
The way the agreement is laid out, that permanent end to the fighting is set to begin in the second phase, at which point Hamas would release all remaining hostages and all Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza. In the third phase, reconstruction in the enclave would begin and the final remains of hostages would be returned.
In announcing the framework on May 31 – which both Hamas and Israel agreed to — President Joe Biden admitted there would be considerable issues left to negotiate after the temporary pause started. Hamas had hoped the only remaining discussion would be about how many Palestinian prisoners would be released for the Israeli hostages, but Israel pushed for that topic – known as the “keys” — to just be one of the topics the sides could discuss during the transition from the first phase to secure the second.
As long as those discussions continue, Biden had said, the ceasefire from the first phase would also continue, past the six-week mark. As hard as the mediators – the US, Egypt and Qatar – could try to keep those conversations on track to prevent a return to fighting, they could simply fall apart and both sides could once again take up arms.
Hours after Biden laid out the May 31 framework, Netanyahu’s office posted on X that “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed.”
“The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” he said.
Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is believed to still be alive despite fierce Israeli efforts to hunt him down. Thousands of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters also remain on the battlefield.
Only around 30 of the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages would be expected to be released by Hamas in the first part of a truce and it’s still unclear how many of those would be alive, sources familiar the talks say.
Negotiators are still discussing how many and which Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange, how many vetoes Israel would have over the names Hamas would put forward of those serving longer sentences for more violent crimes, and where they would be released to.
Much attention recently has been focused on the question of Israeli troop presence along the Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi corridor. In the agreement being discussed, IDF forces are supposed to withdraw from densely populated areas, but Israel has argued that the border isn’t one and is vital to preventing weapons smuggling into Gaza.
On Wednesday Netanyahu’s office denied an Israeli report that he had agreed to withdraw from the corridor.
“Achievement of all of [Israel’s] objectives for the war,” a statement said, “requires securing the southern border.”
Holding onto Philadelphi during the six-week first phase, even if were in a more limited way with fewer forces, would give Israel flexibility and more options militarily for later scenarios.
CNN reported on Friday that Israel has come up with a new proposal on the corridor, which Egypt is set to deliver to Hamas. Israel submitted the revised plan on Thursday diplomat and an Israeli source familiar with the talks said.
The new Israeli proposal, which includes a map of where Israeli troops would be deployed, reduces the number of troops and military posts along the strategic corridor bordering Egypt from Israel’s previous position, the Israeli source said. Egyptian negotiators had rejected the previous Israeli map days earlier and declined to transfer it to Hamas, calling it a non-starter.
CNN reported on Friday that Israel has come up with a new proposal on the corridor which Egypt is set to deliver to Hamas. Israel submitted the revised plan on Thursday diplomat and an Israeli source familiar with the talks said.
The new Israeli proposal, which includes a map of where Israeli troops would be deployed, reduces the number of troops and military posts along the strategic corridor bordering Egypt from Israel’s previous position, the Israeli source said. Egyptian negotiators had rejected the previous Israeli map days earlier and declined to transfer it to Hamas, calling it a non-starter.
Hamas’ response to the new proposal will be critical to determining whether it sends negotiators to an expected negotiating summit in Cairo on Sunday. If they attend, the two sides could hold true negotiations – with each side’s delegation occupying a room, and Egyptian and Qatari mediators going back-and-forth between the two.
The new proposal was the product of an hours-long meeting between Netanyahu and his negotiating team on Thursday at which Netanyahu agreed to reduce troop levels. That meeting came a day after Netanyahu spoke with President Joe Biden, who pushed Netanyahu to show more flexibility on the Philadelphi corridor.
There are deep divisions and differences of opinion among the Israeli security officials and the Netanyahu government. Far-right members of his cabinet have blasted any ceasefire agreement while Israeli reports cite security officials who accuse Netanyahu of sabotaging the negotiations.
“The (Israeli) military would like a ceasefire now, a ceasefire that achieves objectives of getting hostages out,” a senior American official said. “All issues outstanding are manageable. Not perfect but manageable.”
The lead negotiator for the Biden administration, CIA Director Bill Burns, has landed in Cairo for the latest round of talks on Friday.
To try to finalize an agreement, the US, along with co-mediators Qatar and Egypt, put forward a proposal to bridge the final disagreements.
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting Israel, said Netanyahu had agreed to the proposal while Hamas had not yet.
Hamas has accused Israel in recent days of changing the terms, while reports have said that Netanyahu has changed and reneged on a number of positions.
A senior Biden administration official recently called Israel’s changes “clarifications,” while US officials have publicly and persistently maintained that a deal is close and that mere “implementation” issues remain to be discussed.
But many involved are not as optimistic.
One source familiar with all the discussions since the last temporary truce fell apart almost nine months ago called the situation “near hopeless,” adding that that this week’s negotiations following last week’s round in Doha have failed to produce positive developments.
One major unknown is what Hamas leader Sinwar wants: a break for his fighters and the Palestinians suffering immensely or a larger regional conflict driven by Iran and Hezbollah that would further engulf Israel.
Some observers believe Sinwar is waiting to see how Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran retaliate against Israel for recent assassinations of a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and Hamas’ political leader in Tehran.
Whatever the outcome of the weekend’s talks, all signs suggest that the most Israel is willing to consider right now is 42 days of quiet. After that, all bets are off.
“It’s easy to be pessimistic because it’s gone on a long time,” the senior American official conceded. “They could have closed this many times but didn’t.”
CNN’s Jeremy Diamond and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.
