- EUR/USD slumps to near 1.0470 after the release of February’s preliminary PMI data for the Eurozone and its major nations.
- The Eurozone Composite PMI expanded at a steady pace of 50.2 in February.
- Investors expect Trump’s tariff agenda won’t hurt much than anticipated earlier.
EUR/USD slides to near 1.0470 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair weakens after the release of the Hamburg Commercial Bank’s (HCOB) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February for the Eurozone and its major nations. The Eurozone HCOB PMI report, compiled by S&P Global, showed that overall business activity expanded at a steady pace but slower than expected. The Composite PMI read 50.2 against estimates of 50.5.
The report showed that the Manufacturing PMI continued to contract. However, the pace at which the economic data declined was slower than estimates and the former reading. Meanwhile, activities in the services sector expanded. The pace at which the data advanced was surprisingly slower than the prior release.
“Economic output in the Eurozone is barely moving at all. The somewhat milder recession in the manufacturing sector is only just being overcompensated by the barely noticeable growth in the services sector. There is certainly hope for a German government that will be able to act after the elections, which should also provide a positive impetus for the eurozone as a whole. However, this is offset by a relatively unstable situation in France and a US customs policy that is spreading uncertainty. These figures, therefore, do not yet point to a recovery in the eurozone.” Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, said.
A steady growth in the Eurozone PMI data is unlikely to provide relief to European Central Bank (ECB) officials, who have been worried about upside risks to economic growth. Traders have fully priced in three more interest rate cuts by the ECB this year. The ECB also reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% last month.
In today’s session, investors will also focus on the flash United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for February, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines as US Dollar rebounds
- EUR/USD struggles to hold Thursday’s gains near the psychological level of 1.0500 as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after posting a fresh Year-to-Date (YTD) low, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising to 106.65 from 106.30.
- On Thursday, the Greenback faced a sharp sell-off as market mood improved. Investors expect United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs agenda will not be much more terrifying than the market had anticipated.
- Till now, President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, 10% on all imports from China, and has threatened to introduce reciprocal tariffs, with a 25% levy on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals by April. Market participants had anticipated that Trump would force tariffs soon after returning to the White House.
- The ambiguity surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies appears to have bought time for US trading partners to negotiate a deal with him, potentially limiting the impact of tariffs on their economies. On Thursday, European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the US has shown some willingness to mutually reduce tariffs. Sefcovic’s comments came after having a long meeting with Trump’s top trade officials. He added that his number one priority is to avoid economic pain for both nations.
- Apart from Trump’s tariff agenda, growing optimism over the Russia-Ukraine truce has also weighed on the US Dollar. President Trump has agreed to hold more talks with Russia, including Ukraine and Europe, to end the war. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the President is committed to ending the war “quickly” and added that Russia could see some sanctions relief for negotiating an end to its war with Ukraine.
- On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been guiding a restrictive monetary policy stance amid concerns over upside risks to inflation due to Trump’s economic agenda.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD aims to hold key 50-day EMA
EUR/USD falls slightly to near 1.0470 in European trading hours on Friday after revisiting the three-week high of 1.0500 on Thursday. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to offer support to the major currency pair around 1.0436.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would activate if the RSI (14) manages to sustain above that level.
Looking down, the February 10 low of 1.0285 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.
Last release: Fri Feb 21, 2025 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 50.2
Consensus: 50.5
Previous: 50.2
Source: S&P Global
