- EUR/USD enters above 1.1100 after a volatile US close on Wednesday with Trump issuing tariffs pause.
- Markets see March US CPI data release come in softer than expected.
- The EUR/USD rally is still intact and re-enters the 1.1000-1.1500 region.
The EUR/USD pair sprints higher to 1.1120 at the time of writing on Thursday after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. A whipsaw session on Wednesday saw EUR/USD ranging from 1.1095 all the way down to 1.0913 as United States (US) President Donald Trump eased off his tariffs stance and lowered the reciprocal tariff rate for all countries to 10% during a 90-day pause.
The move came after several people, such as Elon Musk, Bill Ackman and some leading republican party figures – US Stock markets were also giving signs of warning – advised the US president that the reciprocal levies approach was hitting nerves. The 90-day pause was applauded by markets as US Equities went through the roof. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March came in softer than expected and triggered another leg higher in EUR/USD price action.
Daily digest market movers: Prices go down
- March US CPI data:
-
-
- Headline monthly inflation contracted by 0.1%, against the expected uptick by 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in February. The yearly headline inflation fell to 2.4%, below the expected 2.6% in March, coming from 2.8%.
- Core monthly inflation fell to 0.1%, below the 0.3% survey number, coming from 0.2%. The yearly core inflation eased to 2.8%, below the 3.0% expected in March from 3.1% the previous month.
- Weekly US Jobless Claims will be released as well, with the initial claims coming in at 223,000 as expected, coming from 219,000. The Continuing Claims should fell to 1.85million, below the estimate of 1.88 million and from 1.903 million last week.
-
- At 13:30 GMT, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is due to speak.
- At 14:00 GMT, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gives a testimony at the Nomination Hearing Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
- At 16:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Economic Club of New York.
- At 16:30 GMT, Philadelphia Fed bank President Patrick Harker will comment on Fintech in the ‘2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference’ at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Ten Independence Mall, Philadelphia.
- Equities are rallying, with European ones firmly in the green, up over 5%. US futures are sinking lower, though, as the rejoicement from Wednesday after Trump’s tariffs announcement seems to be short-lived for now.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows that the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May have decreased to only 19,5% compared with 44.6% seen on Tuesday. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 75.3%.
- The US 10-year yield trades around 4.34% and is looking for direction after the bounce throughout this week.
Technical Analysis: Time to cash in
The EUR/USD pair is clearly facing volatility since Trump went ahead with his reciprocal tariffs announcement and implementation. The 90-day pause announced on Wednesday was briefly seen as a reason to strengthen the Greenback, but now market sentiment turns around the fact that 90 days might not be that much time to negotiate with all the countries hit by reciprocal tariffs on all kinds of products and goods.
The 1.1000 important psychological level is being reclaimed, with the EUR/USD nearing the 1.1050 area at the time of writing. The next target is the 1.1200 level, which limited the EUR/USD advance in August and September 2024, with interim resistance at the current year-to-date high of 1.1146.
On the downside, the ascending trend line, coming in around 1.0910, should do the trick to support the rally. In case this line is broken, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0735 could limit the downside. Below there, the 1.0667 pivotal level and the 55-day SMA at 1.0645 should be able to support the major currency pair.
EUR/USD: Daily Chart
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
