- EUR/GBP shows no movement after the release of weaker-than-expected UK Retail Sales on Friday.
- UK Retail Sales fell by 1.2% month-over-month in June, compared to the projected 0.4% decline.
- ECB President Lagarde provided no hints about the stance for the next meeting, stating that September was “wide open.”
EUR/GBP holds mild gains around 0.8420 during the Asian session following the release of UK Retail Sales data on Friday. The volume of sales of goods by retailers fell by 1.2% month-over-month in June, reversing the 2.9% increase seen in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This decline was steeper than the projected 0.4% drop.
UK Retail Sales decreased by 0.2% year-over-year in June, compared to a 1.3% increase in May. Core Retail Sales also fell by 0.8% YoY in June, down from a 1.2% growth in the previous month, missing expectations. Additionally, the GfK Group Consumer Confidence Index for July showed a decline to -13 from -14, falling short of the forecasted -12.
Investors have been pricing out the possibility of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut following Wednesday’s final UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, which met forecasts. However, a larger-than-expected drop in the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation briefly pressured the British Pound.
On the EUR front, Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, surpassing the anticipated 0.1% rise. Year-over-year, PPI fell by 1.6% in June, meeting expectations and improving from the previous 2.2% decline.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its main refinancing rate at 4.25%, as expected, at its July Monetary Policy Meeting. The ECB’s deposit facility rate also remains unchanged at 3.75%.
At the press conference following the interest rate decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated, “The question of September and what we do in September is wide open.” Lagarde also noted that the monetary policy decision had been unanimous and emphasized the central bank’s commitment to relying on a range of data rather than any single data point, according to Reuters.
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
