- EUR/GBP extends its winning streak as the European Union considers boosting defense spending through joint borrowing and EU funds.
- Germany’s Green Party may negotiate a defense spending agreement with the expected ruling coalition, led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz.
- The Pound Sterling found support after BoE’s Mann dismissed the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing.
EUR/GBP continues its winning streak that began on March 3, trading around 0.8440 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross continues to strengthen as the European Union (EU) explores ways to bolster defense spending through joint borrowing, EU funds, and an expanded role for the European Investment Bank (EIB), with key decisions expected by June.
Germany’s Green Party is open to negotiations and aims to reach an agreement by the end of the week in its dispute over defense spending with the country’s likely next ruling coalition, led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. “Of course, we are ready to negotiate,” said Green Party co-leader Franziska Brantner in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday.
Earlier, German leaders agreed to relax the borrowing limit, known as the “debt brake,” and establish a €500 billion infrastructure fund to boost defense spending and drive economic growth. Meanwhile, Italy is set to propose a European guarantee scheme that could unlock up to €200 billion ($216.48 billion) in investments for the defense and aerospace industries, according to Reuters.
These large-scale economic stimulus measures have prompted traders to scale back expectations of two additional interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, as the potential inflationary impact could limit the scope for further easing.
However, the upside for the EUR/GBP cross may be capped as the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains supported by last week’s cautious remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann. She dismissed the need for a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary easing, citing rising global economic volatility.
Before Mann’s comments, four BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, had advocated for a measured approach to reducing monetary policy restrictiveness, emphasizing that inflation persistence is unlikely to ease “on its own accord.”
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany’s economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany’s economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro’s value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro’s strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the ‘Fiscal Compact’ following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond’s price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund’s price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
