One element that the former president and presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee will have to consider, among other factors, is the impact that each of the vice presidential contenders will have on the ticket overall.
If a new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released on Monday is to be believed, there are several options that could give Trump a significant boost — and others that would be a significant drag.
Among the contenders polled, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York — who, as House GOP conference chair, is the highest-ranking woman in Washington — would be the biggest drag on the ticket.
24% of all voters say they would be less likely to support a Trump ticket with her on it, while just 13% said they would be more likely to do so.
It’s bad even within her own party: 22% of GOP respondents said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if Stefanik was on the ticket, while just 12% said they would be more likely to do so.
Those results put her below North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a lesser-known contender, as well as South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who’s recently made headlines for killing her own dog and dubiously claiming to have met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
The poll, conducted between May 15 and 16 among 1,660 registered voters, does not explain why Stefanik ranks so low.
While she was among the first House Republicans to endorse Trump’s 2024 campaign, it’s possible that GOP voters are still aware of her past as a moderate, Trump-skeptic lawmaker.
The poll also found that Stefanik remains relatively unknown to the average voter — 20% have a favorable impression of her, 22% have an unfavorable impression, and 56% either have no opinion, or haven’t heard of her.
Meanwhile, the poll showed that the biggest boons for the Trump ticket would be Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — both of whom challenged Trump for the nomination this year — as well as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
In each case, the majority of voters — ranging between 54% and 64% — indicated that Trump’s VP choice wouldn’t affect their decision at all.
Here’s how each VP contender polled among all voters:
- Sen. Tim Scott — 25% more likely, 19% less likely;
- Vivek Ramaswamy — 23% more likely, 13% less likely;
- Sen. Marco Rubio — 22% more likely, 22% less likely;
- Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard — 19% more likely, 20% less likely;
- Gov. Kristi Noem — 16% more likely, 23% less likely;
- Gov. Doug Burgum — 15% more likely, 21% less likely;
- Rep. Elise Stefanik — 13% more likely, 24% less likely.
