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Egypt, one of the most influential countries not only in the Middle East and North Africa, but the entire world currently has a powerful military structure, which puts Cairo in the forefront of regional politics. Currently Egypt is facing a major economic turmoil mixed with governmental mismanagement, a rapidly rising population, and decades of various autocracies.
Despite Cairo’s troubles, the country is rapidly building military strength and capabilities, which is slowly gaining the attention of regional politics.
Rapid Egyptian Militarization
Against the backdrop of the 2013 military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood-led government of Cairo, Egypt’s armed forces underwent a growing militarization and influence under new President and former Minister of Defense Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Under Sisi, the military is consolidating hold over the economic, communications, and energy sectors in Egypt. Cairo now has a de facto military control and oversight over the day to day governance akin to Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, and Eritrea.
Currently, Sisi is overseeing an overhaul of the Egyptian Armed Forces, which went through a period of stagnation under Hosni Mubarak and Mohammed Morsi, the former of which feared growing ambitions of a more professionalized officer corps.
Skeptical of future military aid as the State Department has raised concerns about Egypt’s growing authoritarianism, which included limited embargoes. The new doctrine of Cairo is less dependent on the West while becoming a major regional player in the Middle East and wider-Africa.
According to SIPRI, Egypt became the third largest importer of weapons in the world between 2015 and 2019. Many of these weapons purchases came from Germany, Russia, France, and potentially China.
A Looming Conflict with Ethiopia
Against the backdrop of Addis Ababa finalizing the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Cairo heightened belligerent rhetoric against the former as fears of the filling of the dam could hamper Egypt’s economy.
Both Ethiopia and Egypt have fast rising populations and agriculture along the Nile River is critical to maintaining food and energy sources for their respective constituents. In fears that Addis Ababa could hamper the flow of the river with GERD filling, Cairo has threatened military actions on numerous occasions, which has brought foreign and international mediation to the forefront.
Likewise, Ethiopia is also facing a looming socioeconomic problem—lack of sea access. Due to a rapidly rising population, now over 150 million, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is looking for direct water access, which has brought forth a diplomatic conflict with both Eritrea and Somalia that intertwines with Egypt.
Originally wanting port access through Eritrea, which would have collapsed the original peace deal, instead, Ethiopia signed a major deal through the breakaway region of Somaliland for port leasing in return for recognition. The deal solidifies that Ethiopia will be the first United Nations member and founding country to recognize Somaliland.
In lieu of the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the government of Somalia prepared for renewed tensions as both East African nations have a history of armed conflicts. Somalia has grown military cooperation with Egypt and Cairo has sent thousands of various equipment, troops, and logistics to Mogadishu.
Fearing an attempted war or, preferably a show of force by Cairo in order to gain favorable negotiations over the GERD dam filling, Ethiopia and Somaliland are preparing for a potential armed conflict with Somalia and Egypt, with ramifications on a new global refugee crisis rhetoric world can ill-afford.
Tensions with Israel
The ongoing Israel-Hamas War is also having wider implications for Egypt’s unconventional patterns of militarization. While both Israel and Egypt maintain the Camp David Accords, relations soured during the Morsi era and the current war is potentially resetting relations between both MENA powers.
Fearing the Israeli military may displace hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, not only has Egypt reinforced their adjacent border in Gaza, but also sent threats and warnings against the IDF. Limited clashes have also resulted in several Egyptian military casualties.
Over the past several decades since the ending of the Yom Kippur War, the negotiations between Israel and Egypt stated the Sinai was to be largely demilitarized with very few heavy weaponry. Extremist organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS took advantage of the powder keg and waged a deadly insurgency in the peninsula that saw thousands of deaths of Egyptian forces and major terrorist attacks on civilians.
Likewise, Egypt’s economy continues to spiral downward as the population grows upward. Potentially having hundreds of thousands of Palestinians could exacerbate the economic situation and even further radicalize the country as many Egyptians remain sympathetic to Gaza.
Though an armed conflict between both countries remains far and minimal, a drift with Egypt moving towards China, Russia, and BRICS, and Israel remaining firmly under America’s folds remains. However, with tensions in the region remaining high, all it takes is one miscalculation for the Camp David Accords to break down.
The Warning Signs from the Pentagon Leaks
During the spring of 2023, sensitive Pentagon documents were leaked by a rogue US service member. One of the leaked documents also showed that Egypt planned to produce and transfer 40,000 artillery shells to Russia’s internationally condemned invasion of Ukraine.
Though Egypt’s government denied the allegations, it would correlate with the growing cooperation Cairo has had with Moscow, including military cooperation and the joint backing of General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in Libya.
Egypt itself is likely to move away from America’s influence and look for a more autonomous foreign policy as the government feels hindered by the Camp David Accords as DC attempts to manage the delicate power balance between the former and Israel. Arguably why Cairo has sought out more reach to Moscow and Beijing.
Israel isn’t the only regional power that has grown stronger while Egypt has stagnated, as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have exerted their influence and military strength throughout the Middle East and North Africa and Cairo is feeling a sense of urgency to catch up to them and be at the forefront of regional politics they once were in the 20th century.
Egypt’s true pride intertwines with its military and force projection—both of which went through several decades of stagnation from the 1970s to 2010s. Though Egypt’s military movements and future plans cannot be predicted, one could argue Cairo is not drastically remilitarizing for show, but to prepare for conventional armed conflict.
[Photo by US Military, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”
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