- Dow Jones reclaims 39,000.00 handle as markets rebound post-Juneteenth holiday.
- Softening US data helps to bolster rate cut expectations.
- US PMIs still loom ahead on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is surging upwards on Thursday as investors return to markets with a vengeance following the midweek Juneteenth holiday that shuttered US exchanges on Wednesday. US economic data cooled with May’s Building Permits and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for June both declining, while Initial Jobless Claims recovered less ground than expected to notch another print above the four-week average.
With US economic figures broadly missing the mark, investor hopes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) getting bullied into a rate cut sooner rather than later are pinned to the ceiling. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in upwards of a 70% chance that the Fed will deliver at least a quarter-point cut on September 18.
Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims rose more than estimated last week
Despite recent economic data softening, the Fed continues to pursue a restrictive policy stance. Fed policymakers are determined to await several months of chilled inflation figures before considering policy rate shifts. Despite jiggles in week-on-week unemployment claims, the US jobs market remains incredibly tight, giving Fed officials a firm branch to lean on and avoid rushing into any abrupt policy adjustments.
US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures will round out the trading week. Rate-cut-hungry investors are looking for a continued cooling effect in US economic data. The Manufacturing and Services PMIs are both forecast to etch in small losses, with June’s Manufacturing PMI expected to tick down to 51.0 from 51.3 and the Services PMI component to shift down to 53.7 from 54.8.
Dow Jones news
The Dow Jones is firmly higher on Thursday, with all but five of the index’s constituent securities lower on the day. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is leading declines, shedding 2.0% and falling below $210.00 per share as investors rethink a recent splurge driven by Apple’s announcement of further integration of AI tech into pre-existing Apple software offerings. Apple also announced the closure of its Pay Later program, which allowed Apple customers to make purchases on an in-house financed installment plan.
On the high side, Salesforce Inc. (CRM) climbed 4.5% on Thursday after the digital customer data management firm announced its own fresh batch of AI-tech integrations to investors. CRM climbed over $242.00 per share as investors continue to scoop up AI tech announcements with little concern over how these companies will convert AI integrations into more sales.
Dow Jones tech outlook
The Dow Jones index climbed to fresh highs for the week on Thursday, testing its highest bids in almost four weeks to reclaim the 39,000.00 handle. The DJIA is testing chart territory north of 39,200.00 and has made significant one-day progress to grinding its way back to all-time highs set above 40,000.00 in May.
Daily candlesticks have lept back over the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 38,825.00, extending a recovery from a recent plunge to the 38,000.00 region.
Dow Jones five minute chart
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. A larger-than-expected number indicates weakness in the US labor market, reflects negatively on the US economy, and is negative for the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, a decreasing number should be taken as bullish for the USD.
Last release: Thu Jun 20, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Weekly
Actual: 238K
Consensus: 235K
Previous: 242K
Source: US Department of Labor
