Public data from crypto exchanges indicates that capital has been flowing out of the market over the past month. This trend may affect the market’s short-term price momentum.
Bitcoin may not see a breakthrough in October, but investor expectations for Q4 remain highly positive.
Most Crypto Exchanges Record Outflow
Defillama’s CEX Transparency data tracks inflows and outflows from public wallet addresses of various exchanges, allowing investors to monitor capital movements. The data shows that 9 out of 10 monitored exchanges have reported negative inflows in the past month.
The total amount of funds flowing out of these 10 exchanges reached over $2.68 billion, including both altcoins and stablecoins.
Read more: Top 9 Safest Crypto Exchanges in 2024
CEX Transparency. Source: DefiLlama
By cross-referencing with Nansen’s data, one can evaluate how much stablecoin liquidity has exited the exchanges over the past month. The data indicates that the stablecoin balance on exchanges has sharply decreased from $38.5 billion to $35 billion, representing a $3.5 billion decline.
Stablecoin Exchange Flow. Source: Nansen
Thus, the majority of the outflow from exchanges in the past month consisted of stablecoins. Typically, stablecoins entering exchanges are seen as a sign of potential buying pressure.
However, when stablecoins flow out, the market lacks the momentum for upward price movements, signaling that investors are not ready to add more to their portfolios.
BlackRock Executes Second Major Outflow in 2024
BlackRock‘s total Bitcoin holdings have now exceeded 340,000 BTC. This giant’s actions are closely watched as they reflect the expectations of institutional investors.
CryptoQuant data shows that an on-chain address linked to BlackRock’s ETF saw 256 BTC withdrawn, marking the second-largest withdrawal recorded. The chart illustrates that BlackRock’s accumulation has slowed compared to early 2024.
Blackrock Balance Change. Souce: CryptoQuant
BlackRock rarely withdraws, with the last major outflow occurring in May when Bitcoin fell below $60,000. This slowdown in accumulation and the recent withdrawal may raise concerns among retail investors.
Coinglass’s ETF Net Inflow data also reveals that, during the first five trading days of October, three days recorded negative inflows. This indicates caution among Bitcoin ETF investors in October.
Read more: What Is a Bitcoin ETF?
If stablecoin outflows continue and Bitcoin balances in ETFs keep declining, the crypto market may not experience significant gains in October. However, many analysts still predict a positive Q4 for Bitcoin.
“Most of “Uptober” doesn’t start until after the 19th. Be patient.” Investor Timothy Peterson commented.
By observing past price behavior, investor Timothy Peterson notes that Bitcoin tends to start a rebound toward the end of the month.
