Investing.com — are on a three-month losing streak and are likely to continue to stumble through year end, analysts at Macquarie said, as weak supply and demand fundamentals will likely continue to take shine of any boost from Middle East geopolitical pressure or stimulus from China.
“[W]e anticipate a decrease in crude price through YE24 as bearish fundamentals outweigh geopolitical factors,” Macquarie analysts said in a recent note.
The supply and demand outlook is at the heart of the weak fundamentals pressuring oil prices. The analysts expect a pick up in growth in the fourth quarter, driven by US production growth and the return of OPEC+ barrels at a time when oil demand growth trends below 1M barrels per day.
The supply-demand imbalances have curb the potential boost to oil prices from rising Middle East geopolitical tensions, which pose a risk to global supplies, and stimulus from China, the world’s largest oil importer.
“Despite geopolitical tensions and potential Chinese stimulus, the fundamentals remain weak,” the analysts said.
The sell-off in has returned to its 50-day moving average after a $5 per barrel sell-off over the past two weeks, Macquarie said. “This reflects a broader bearish sentiment in the market, with positioning turning more negative as speculative net length for both WTI and Brent decreased last week.”
Looking ahead, Macquarie suggests that unless there is a significant shift in supply dynamics or more robust economic data from major economies, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure.
“Overall, we do not expect the recent stimulus efforts to materially impact oil demand growth until the property sector stabilizes and rebounds,” Macquarie added.
