There is a change happening in Africa, but Europe and the United States appear oblivious to it.
Africa’s leaders are standing up and making their voices heard. While the world is hearing them, no one is listening to what they are saying.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa was one of the most significant of those voices at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York at the end of September. Many might not have agreed with the tenor of what he was saying, but there is no doubt that he was taking charge of the podium at an international event in a way that we haven’t seen from any African leader since the days of the late Nelson Mandela.
There are many reasons for this newfound confidence, but a tectonic shift came from the success that the South African-led seven-African nation Russia-Ukraine peace initiative enjoyed last year. After being beset by domestic issues in the wake of the end of the Cold War and hamstrung by the inefficient and disparate African Union (AU), suddenly, African countries discovered that they could make a difference if they find a consensus, as these seven countries did, and actively pursue it.
It was striking how many African leaders took to the podium at the 79th session to speak in the same voice – and the same message: the West has to start putting its money where its mouth is in terms of its promises.
The stakes are high—Africa has become a proxy battleground once again in a multipolar world war, with superpowers, former superpowers, and aspirant superpowers battling for supremacy as white-hot conflicts ignite into bitter wars in different theatres across the globe.
The West has long been fixated on the diplomatic and economic inroads that China has made into Africa, worrying that Beijing will exert a global stranglehold on the strategic minerals so vital in the world’s transition to a green economy. In the process though, Europe and the US have managed to steadfastly overlook the rise of the Russian influence in Africa.
Russia’s inexorable rise has been a masterclass in propaganda and influence-mongering, a strategy powered by the technological advancements in communication that have taken over the world. Africa today is a testament to the largesse of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ strategy; brand new infrastructure from ports to road and rail networks.
Russia has not laid out a cent in aid or infrastructural investment, but instead, in a matter of years, has started to change the narrative in Africa and, critically, Africa’s perception of itself.
This is just one of the findings borne out by the African Youth Survey since its inception in 2019 and the most recent edition of the survey released this year showing that Russia continues to wax in the hearts and minds of the African youth, as the major Western countries (many of them former colonial powers) steadily wane.
The increase in positive sentiment towards Russia in South Africa, one of Africa’s two biggest economies, has been startling according to the survey. In just two years, pro-Russian sentiment has grown from 34% to 57%. This is something that has been borne out by the South African government’s shift in foreign policy by building closer ties with Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine.
As Africa continues to express itself and display its confidence, which includes lobbying for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, the true risk of this growth in Russia’s influence becomes evident.
Africa accounts for 54 votes of the 193 member states of the world body – more than a quarter. If Vladimir Putin’s regime can get Africa to act as a bloc either actively behind Russia or under the auspices of BRICS, then the next battleground will be to influence the appointment of leaders and functionaries to the various organs and agencies that make up the greater UN.
The implications for supposedly neutral organs such as the WHO, UNESCO and, critically, the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), are all too clear to see. This is not merely a regional shift, but a major movement that will redefine the global balance of power, with the ultimate aim of isolating, delegitimizing and emasculating Europe and the US.
In an increasingly multipolar world, the new Cold War is not about guns and bombs but about controlling opinion and, through that, manufacturing consensus.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War brought about an end to the old Soviet dominance of African countries whose liberation movements it had trained, funded and equipped – as well the accepted USSR world view. But it was only a lull.
Under Putin, the old Soviet strategy of disinformation and agitprop has returned with a vengeance.
The strategy remains the same – To metastasize the truth and create space for Moscow’s own desired narrative to flourish.
Whether it is an effort to negate criticism of its invasion of Ukraine or to muddy the waters in successive US presidential elections to divert domestic attention, the desired result is the same; to allow Russia the space to wage an undeclared war in cyberspace, rather than on the traditional theatres of land, sea and air; for hearts and minds, rather than muddy kilometres of traditional battlegrounds.
The West forgets too that the Chinese Belt and Road strategy went way beyond the largesse of aid and massive building projects, but also about getting the recipients to accept the Chinese way of thinking. This war for belief and trust comes at a fertile time in Africa’s awakening.
Long controlled first by colonial group think and then liberation consciousness, Africans are now starting to think for themselves in a way that has never been encouraged since the time the first colonists wielding guns or bibles or both, stepped onto the African shore with devastating consequences that would take centuries to undo.
Then there was post liberation and communist dogma. But Africa is changing.
The youth have shown us through successive editions of the African Youth Survey that they are taking charge of their destinies and holding their leaders to account.
But what are their expectations of those leaders if their opinions are being influenced by a tsunami of information driven by a highly sophisticated agit-prop campaign from Moscow?
The West can no longer afford to ignore the reality: disengagement and disregard for Africa’s youth will have far-reaching consequences.
But both Europe and the US appear comfortable in their complacency, giving Russia – and China – a free run in this war for hearts and minds.
In the process, they are fast losing a war, they don’t even realise that they have to fight – and win.
[UN Photo/Loey Felipe]
Ivor Ichikowitz is an African industrialist and philanthropist. His Ichikowitz Family Foundation conceptualised and funds the biennial African Youth Survey. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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