- Trump’s relations with European leaders are fraying over Ukraine.
- China sees the opportunity to exploit the divisions, according to conflict and security experts.
- China has long sought to split the alliance between Europe and the US.
In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s Oval Office bust-up with Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelenskyy last week, the decades-old alliance between Europe and the US is under fresh strain.
The Trump administration has justified backing away from its commitment to European security by arguing that it needs to focus on the threat posed by China. But China could be one of the big winners in any deterioration in the alliance between the West’s main power blocs.
Beijing could be poised to capitalize on Europe’s need for investments amid steep new defense spending requirements demanded by Trump, coupled with the likely imposition of new tariffs by the US.
“The ongoing rupture of the transatlantic alliance affords China an opportunity to present itself once more as a partner to many European countries,” Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser at the International Crisis Group in Washington, DC, told BI.
He said that despite their concerns over deepening Sino-Russian ties and rising Chinese exports, these countries “believe that they must de-risk from a United States that is aligning itself with Russia and expanding its protectionist campaign.”
China seeks to divide the West
Beijing has long sought to weaken the US’ alliances in Europe, with the 27-nation EU a major trading partner for both the US and China.
China’s support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine hardened European attitudes toward it. But that may be about to change.
In fact, European leaders are now openly discussing how to adapt to a world where US security guarantees can no longer be counted on.
“Europe’s approach to derisking may change and create opportunities for China,” Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the UK’s University of Birmingham, told BI.
This could pave the way for European leaders to broker deals with Beijing unilaterally, both to strengthen their economies and also to act as a balance against US power.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi sought to exploit divisions, calling for greater cooperation between China and Europe.
One opening China could seek to exploit is Ukraine itself.
Large parts of the country have been reduced to rubble by the three-year war, which has left Ukraine facing a possible reconstruction bill of $524 billion over the next decade, according to the World Bank.
And China could end up as an unexpected beneficiary of any peace deal, given its status as a global construction powerhouse and its pre-war trade ties with Ukraine.
“The staggering costs of postwar reconstruction in Ukraine — presently estimated at well over $500 billion over the next decade, a figure that is likely to increase significantly given that there is no short-term resolution to the war in the offing — mean that China will likely have an opportunity to secure hefty reconstruction contracts,” Wyne told BI.
China senses opportunity
Olivier Schmitt a professor at the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, writing in December, warned that a US withdrawal from its commitments in Europe could backfire on Trump.
“Far from reinforcing Washington, the proposed policies would only strengthen China’s role in the international system by forcing Europeans to align more closely with Beijing,” he said.
There are, however, obstacles for China to overcome if it’s to realize its ambitions of splintering the US-Europe alliance and seizing new economic and political opportunities.
Tensions remain between China and Europe, particularly over the dumping of goods, including electric vehicles and solar panels, both of which the EU has imposed steep tariffs on.
At the same time, European leaders at an emergency summit convened on Sunday in London expressed their desire to repair relations between the US and Ukraine, as well as their conviction that Washington remains a key pillar of European security.
But China senses opportunity. And if relations with Europe continue to spiral, Trump may have sabotaged his goal of pinning back China’s growing influence.
