Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz said that a recession “is certainly on the table,” but that it’s too soon to know for sure.
“I think it’s very early to make a judgment about whether or not we have a recession or we actually have a huge rebound,” the former Goldman Sachs COO told Bloomberg Television in an interview released Sunday.
Schwartz’s remarks came after a roller-coaster of tariff announcements by President Donald Trump this month.
Stock markets tumbled in the wake of the announcements, only to recover some value after Trump paused the higher tariff rates on most countries.
Still, the White House said Chinese exports face a levy of up to 245%, and there is a blanket 10% import tariff for the rest of the world.
Schwartz said a recession can be avoided if the markets settle on a “new equilibrium” in the coming days and months. The worry is the effect of uncertainty in the meantime, he said.
The signs of market disruption already appear to be manifesting in certain sectors. A newly dispatched Boeing 737 Max was spotted returning from China, and DHL has suspended some US-bound shipments under new customs rules.
The uncertainty is “troubling because it stalls decision-making and chills activity,” Schwartz said, adding that CEOs are likely switching from growth planning to contingency planning.
For Schwartz, the most worrying part is the prospect of a sustained US trade war with China.
“I wouldn’t say it keeps me up at night,” he told Bloomberg TV. “But I think if you think about the information we’re all seeing in the marketplace, it’s really critical for the global economy and for trade that we and China find a place of cooperation and equilibrium.”
Last week, Trump said he was reluctant to push China tariffs higher because it could hurt US consumption.
The ripple effects of the stand-off between the two major global powers are already threatening to bleed into other economies. On Monday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it would retaliate against any country seeking “appeasement” by targeting trade deals with the US that harm Chinese interests.
Last month, Schwartz said business leaders should “buckle up” for market volatility in the wake of tariff announcements.
Asked about this in his latest remarks, Schwartz said: “I think they should still stay buckled. It’s just a question of whether or not the airbags come out now.”
