Toncoin (TON), the native asset of The Open Network, is back in focus after a long downtrend. Once trading well above $5, TON has been consolidating under the $3.50 mark for weeks, but recent price action suggests a possible change in momentum. Backed by improving technicals, rising volume, and renewed investor interest, Toncoin price may be heading toward a breakout phase. Let’s dive deep into the latest chart data to uncover what’s really going on.
Toncoin Price Prediction: Can TON Break Past Resistance?
TON/USD Daily Chart- TradingView
On the daily chart, TON price is currently trading near $3.17, attempting to recover from its sharp decline earlier this year. The price is hovering around a confluence of major moving averages. The 20-day SMA ($3.08), 50-day SMA ($3.33), and 100-day SMA ($3.53) are tightly packed, creating a resistance zone TON has been struggling to clear. This compression often precedes explosive moves.
The key bullish sign is that TON price has managed to stay above the 20-day SMA, forming a short-term higher low pattern. The Advance-Decline Line (ADL) is rising steadily, showing improving market breadth and buyer dominance. However, the 200-day SMA at $4.56 looms large, signaling that any meaningful breakout must push beyond $3.50 first to test the longer-term trendline.
Hourly Chart Signals: Bullish Reversal or False Alarm?
TON/USD 1 Hr Chart- TradingView
Zooming into the hourly chart, TON price appears to be forming a minor ascending triangle pattern — a bullish continuation setup. The price is testing resistance near $3.20, and all short-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200 SMA) are converging in a tight band between $3.17–$3.23. This setup often acts like a coiled spring — a break above the resistance could trigger a quick move toward $3.35 or even $3.50.
The ADL on the hourly chart is flat but recently ticked higher, suggesting accumulation. If we see increased volume and a clean hourly candle close above $3.25, it could mark the beginning of a short-term rally.
What’s Driving Toncoin’s Momentum?
Toncoin’s ecosystem has been expanding with recent DeFi integrations and NFT launches, all of which contribute to stronger fundamentals. Additionally, the broader Layer-1 narrative has been gaining traction, giving renewed hope to projects like TON that were previously overshadowed.
Another key factor is market psychology. With many altcoins recovering, TON’s long period of consolidation under $3.50 is beginning to look like a base-building phase. Traders are watching for confirmation through volume and breakout candles.
Key Levels to Watch
The immediate resistance lies at $3.25, followed by $3.50, which also aligns with the 100-day SMA. On the downside, $3.00 remains a psychological and structural support level. A close below that would invalidate the bullish structure and expose TON to a pullback toward $2.80.
If TON price breaks $3.50 with strong volume, the next target lies at $4.00, a round-number resistance and previous breakdown level from February. This would represent a 25% upside from current levels.
Toncoin Price Prediction: 30-Day Price Forecast
Assuming continued strength in altcoins and Bitcoin holding above key levels, Toncoin price could realistically target the $3.50–$4.00 zone within the next 30 days. However, that hinges on broader market stability and TON’s ability to close above $3.25 with volume confirmation.
If bearish pressure resumes, a drop to $3.00 or even $2.80 could unfold quickly. Risk management is key.
