Throughout its history, Hungary has been a nation of vast importance in world affairs. Centered in the heart of Central Europe, Hungary was the scene of major historical events, such as the formation of the Visegrad kings and Visegrad Group, a center point of medieval history and art and resistance to the Soviet Union.
Hungary’s once positive international status is taking a downward spiral as Budapest descends further into populism and authoritarianism under Viktor Orban’s Fidesz government.
Hungary’s Slide in Populism
The European Union, though imperfect, is a valuable bloc that has enhanced the economies of Europe and helped prevent armed conflicts that were frequent under current members in the 1800s and 1900s, when Hungary was reeling from the collapse of the USSR, Budapest, along with the other Visegrad Group members, desired to be a part of the union and the NATO collective alliance to stray from the Kremlin’s fold.
During the rise of Viktor Orban and the Fidesz party, Hungary descended into populism and authoritarianism. Orban, who in his youth led democratic protests and condemned Soviet authoritarianism, is now firmly in the pro-Kremlin camp, effectively turning Hungary into Europe’s Trojan horse.
Exacerbating populist rhetoric, Orban is amassing a cult following due to his culture war rhetoric on family values, anti-immigration, growing large families, and pro-Russian stance.
Close Ties with Various Authoritarian Regimes
Previously mentioned, Hungary’s growingly close relations with Russia are becoming a major security issue in the European Union, especially after Budapest lowered travel requirements for Russian and Belarusian workers. Fidesz’s updated travel rules come against the backdrop of a Russian intelligence plot in the French Olympics, and the EU fears the move will allow more foreign intelligence infiltration.
During the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hungary has used its EU veto power to be the only member state to block military and economic aid to the war-battered nation consistently. Likewise, Hungary also used threats of their veto power in NATO to join along with Turkey’s year-long-blocking of Sweden’s ascension into the military alliance due to Budapest’s disputes with Stockholm over Fidesz’s anti-EU policies.
Currently, Hungary is the only NATO and EU member that agrees with Vladimir Putin’s demands of territorial concessions from Ukraine in the name of “peace.” Using the same playbook Russia used to justify invading Ukraine, the Hungarian government also inflames tensions by stating Ukraine is “persecuting” the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia despite unfound allegations and rebukes from Hungarian volunteers and commanders in the Ukrainian Armed Forces such as Robert Brovdi “Madyar.”
Along with worrying cooperation with Russia, Hungary has also grown cavalier to the Mullahs of Iran—even after the violent crackdown of protests during the Masha Amini Movement. Budapest also takes part in the Turkic Council, which invites representatives from the unrecognized “Northern Cyprus,” which is a de facto Turkish military occupation of a European Union member state.
Drawing ire from both Cyprus and Greece over the continuous placating of an unrecognized breakaway state, Hungary also released a brutal convicted murderer, Ramil Safarov, from prison to be repatriated to Azerbaijan, much to the disdain of human rights groups as the United Nations as Azerbaijan’s dictatorship made Safarov a national hero.
Another major red flag coming out of Budapest is the recent policy of Hungary’s government allowing Chinese police to patrol on their soil. Historically, China uses its secret police to abduct and beat dissidents, along with espionage operations, and allowing such inside the EU could also pose a major security threat.
Don’t Fight with the Hungary You Want, Instead, Continue to Plan Without Budapest
Despite Hungary’s growing populism, hybrid activities, and security risks, both NATO and the European Union can work alone with the country and its veto power by calling a bluff on Viktor Orban. Akin to the Russian Federation, Orban uses anti-Western sentiments by blaming everyone except the nation for losing greater territories in the Treaty of Trianon. Still, this dangerous nationalistic irredentism will be Fidesz’s eventual downfall.
Hungary’s actions in the EU were tolerated as Viktor Orban had a powerful ally in Poland’s PiS party. With Donald Tusk winning the recent election, Budapest is increasingly isolated in the EU.
Petr Pavel’s emergence as Czechia’s President has breathed new life into the Visegrad Group. Pavel pushed for the shell initiative that helped Ukraine’s war effort. Orban now only has Robert Fico in Slovakia, and since then, the Smer party has also been isolated in the bloc.
Ukraine turning off Russia’s gas pipeline into Hungary may eventually bring Orban back into the fold as Budapest’s reserves will be depleted mid-autumn without alternative reserves.
Akin to Hungary abusing its veto power to project populism upon the union, other member states are now doing the same to Budapest, which brought forth complaints over Kyiv’s energy block. While Hungary can use the democratic system in its favor, Budapest will soon learn that isolation from partners will come back to bite them, as other countries can likewise use the rule of law in the same way.
For NATO, legislation should be enacted that skips over Hungary’s participation in future military exercises or potential operations and conflicts akin to the recent deal Orban made over Ukraine. With NATO being supplemented by Finland and Sweden, who contribute immensely, contingencies can be made without Hungary’s participation.
Growingly isolated, Hungary is slowly starting to learn that its participation in the European Union and NATO is not as valuable as the populist government assumed. While member states cannot force nor should they coerce change in Budapest, Hungary should be ignored and bypassed as much as possible, and contingencies should be made over a potential trojan horse in the heart of Europe.
[Photo by European People’s Party, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”
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