Topline
Black smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel just before noon local time, indicating two votes held Thursday morning to elect a successor to Pope Francis failed to yield a two-thirds majority for any candidate, meaning conclave will proceed with more votes in the afternoon.
Key Facts
The black smoke Thursday morning means the second and third ballots cast by the 133 voting cardinals failed to elect a new pope, following the first failed ballot on Wednesday.
Cardinals will resume voting Thursday afternoon after a lunch break, where they will cast two more ballots, unless a pope is elected on the first.
It’s unclear how long the conclave will take, as most modern conclaves have lasted just two to three days—but some experts say the conclave, which is the most globally diverse ever, may take longer as many cardinals are meeting one another for the first time.
Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, dean of the College of Cardinals, who is 91 and above the age cutoff of 80 to participate in the conclave, told Italian news outlets he hopes to see white smoke by this evening.
Why Did Day One Of The Conclave Take So Long?
Wednesday’s vote took longer than most experts had predicted, as the first release of smoke took an hour longer than the first black smoke in 2013 during the conclave that elected Pope Francis. Mathew Schmalz, editor of the Journal of Global Catholicism and College of the Holy Cross religious studies professor, told BBC News the lengthy wait for the first release of smoke may have been because of the large number of cardinals from around the world meeting one another for the first time, speculating the conclave could take one day longer than usual. Though it’s unclear why Wednesday’s vote took so long, Schmalz told the BBC he is “getting kind of nervous” about whether the conclave may have run into issues that will need to be smoothed out in the coming days. The conclave of 133 electors is the largest and most globally diverse in history, greater than the 115 electors that participated in the 2005 and 2013 conclaves, which may also cause a longer time for the vote.
Who Are The Leading Contenders To Be Elected Pope?
There’s no clear frontrunner to win the papacy, Vatican experts say, though some of the cardinals considered to be prime candidates include Italy’s Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state who is considered more moderate than Francis, and the Philippines’s Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, who has drawn comparisons to Francis for his liberal-leaning stances and his championing of the poor. Parolin and Tagle are the two leading contenders on various betting sites, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as bettors wage millions on the papal election. Other cardinals considered possible candidates include several from Italy, Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, as well as Congo’s Fridolin Ambongo, Hungary’s Peter Erdo, Ghana’s Peter Turkson and France’s Jean-Marc Aveline.
How Does The Conclave Work—and How Long Will It Take?
While secluded from the outside world, cardinals under the age of 80 will cast four votes each day until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority. The process begins Wednesday afternoon with mass at St. Peter’s Basilica, after which cardinals proceed to the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave. Should no successor be chosen on a given day, cardinals spend the night in Vatican guesthouses to resume voting the next day. Each cardinal is assigned a desk affixed with papers that say, “Eligo in summum pontificem,” or, “I choose as supreme pontiff.”
How Do They Announce When A Pope Has Been Chosen?
After voting, the ballots are burned, and chemicals are added to produce either black smoke—indiciating no pope has been elected—or white smoke—meaning a pope has been chosen—from the Sistine Chapel. Vatican watchers gather to watch what color the smoke is after every vote.
Why Is This Conclave Important?
Papal experts have said the conclave could determine whether the Catholic Church continues down the path laid by Francis to become more progressive, or whether a more conservative successor could be chosen and potentially roll back some of Francis’s reforms. Francis was notable, and divisive, for his stances striking a more welcoming tone toward LGBTQ Catholics and women in church leadership roles, which won some global praise but angered conservative critics. Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Sweden said some cardinals want to elect a successor “who can follow in the footsteps of Francis. Some others said, ‘No, no. Not at all,’” the New York Times reported, while Italian conservative Cardinal Camillo Ruini said there is a “need to return the church to Catholics.” Dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re, said in a homily Wednesday the new pope will face a “difficult and complex turning point in history,” stating he prayed for a pope who leads “for the good of the church and of humanity.”
Surprising Fact
Some cardinals have watched the movie “Conclave,” the papal drama that won an Oscar just two months ago, while prepping for the real thing, Politico reported, citing a cleric involved in the conclave who said some cardinals found the film “remarkably accurate.” Viewership of “Conclave” spiked 283% within a day of Francis’s death, according to Luminate.
Key Background
Francis died at age 88 on Easter Monday, April 21, following a bout of health issues, which led to his longest hospital stay while pope. Francis was hospitalized earlier this year for bilateral pneumonia and bronchitis, and Vatican doctors said he died of cerebral stroke and irreversible heart failure.
Further Reading
These Cardinals Are The Top Candidates To Succeed Pope Francis (Forbes)
The Church Is More Global Than Ever. What Does That Mean for the Next Pope? (New York Times)
