Swan’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Rapha Zagury has observed that BTC is in a range. In a recent post on X, Zagury used Bitcoin’s low-volume state to analyze its situation and predict what could happen soon. Zagury revisited his analysis of the flagship cryptocurrency when it was in a similar situation.
Seems like $BTC is stuck in a range. Although I hate price predictions, I think there’s value in learning from the past. So let me revisit the thread below and update the numbers.
“What happens to #btc price after low vol periods? (2024 version)”
— Alpha Zeta | Rapha Zagury (@alphaazeta) June 7, 2024
In July 2020, Zagury showed that a low-volume period for Bitcoin led to an upside rally. He showed how Bitcoin rallied in 30 days following a month of significantly low trading volumes. For context, the renowned analyst considered a trading volume below 30% low for BTC.
Meanwhile, the Swan CIO revealed that Bitcoin’s current 15-day rolling volatility number is 23%, significantly lower than the value in July 2020. According to Zagury, the BTC 15-day volume is in the bottom six occurrences for volume in the digital asset’s history.
The analyst categorized the pattern of occurrences after Bitcoin’s low-volume periods. He showed that the pioneer cryptocurrency returned an average gain of 20.95% in 30 days, following a typical low-volume period. The minimum return for this period is -30.06%, while BTC could deliver a 218.40% profit.
By extending the projection to 90 days, Zagury highlighted that Bitcoin’s average return under such situation is 56.82%, with a minimum return of -45.26%, while the maximum 90-day return after a low-volume period is 388.60%.
Extending the timeline to 365 days, the Swan CIO showed that Bitcoin made an average return of 820.82%. He also revealed that the minimum return over one year was -55.59%, while it gained 8,087% as a maximum return following periods of low trading volume.
Despite acknowledging that Bitcoin is a hard asset to HODL, Zagury noted that hovering around the all-time high (ATH) makes investors anxious. However, he hinted that most BTC returns after low-volume periods concentrate on lower timeframes.
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