The price action of Bitcoin appears to be mirroring a previous cycle with striking precision, according to fractal analysis from Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino.
If history repeats, BTC may be on the verge of a final corrective move before launching into a strong rally.
Notably, it’s been nearly three months of dipping prices in the crypto market. Bitcoin is currently trading 23% below its January all-time high. While many hope for a reversal soon, Severino believes the pump may not come just yet.
Another Likely Correction Before the Next Leg Up
In his analysis, Severino compared Bitcoin’s current market structure from 2024 to date with its 2018-2021 cycle. This revealed identical uptrends and correction phases.
Both periods feature a double top formation (marked as “3” and “B” in the analysis) before a significant decline. Notably, the ongoing correction aligns with the historical pattern. It suggests BTC could see one more leg down to finalize Wave 4 before a re-accumulation phase begins.
Severino’s chart highlights that Bitcoin’s past cycle bottomed around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before launching into its Wave 5 bull run. The current price structure suggests a similar setup, with BTC potentially dipping to around $75,200 before reversing upward.
Bitcoin char by Tony Severino
Notably, Bitcoin has dipped to $76,600 this month and has since rebounded above $80K. With Bitcoin trading at $84K at press time, revisiting $75K would imply an additional 12% drop.
Final Wave 5 Surge to Follow
If the fractal remains intact, Bitcoin could be setting up for a prolonged uptrend akin to its 2020 breakout. The previous cycle saw BTC rally from around $15,000 to over $60,000. A similar trajectory could place BTC well beyond its current all-time high of $110,000 in the coming months.
Caution for Market Participants
While this analysis highlights a promising outlook after another correction, some believe Bitcoin could even fall deeper, as some technical indicators are already flashing bear market signals.
In a post, Ali Martinez pointed out that if Bitcoin drops below $76K, the next major support is at $58K. This suggests a dip to $75K could have stronger implications, with bears potentially driving prices much lower.
However, Martinez noted that should Bitcoin reclaim $94K, it would likely continue to $112K.
Using pricing bands, we can identify the next key support and resistance levels:
– If #Bitcoin breaks and holds above $94,000, there is a high probability it could surge to $112,000.
– If $BTC drops below $76,000, the next critical support levels are $58,000 and $44,000 pic.twitter.com/rXfi1YNu77— Ali (@ali_charts) March 21, 2025
