Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have often shown a correlation, particularly during key economic events, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts.
This relationship tends to become more pronounced when central banks shift monetary policies. However, Bitcoin’s behavior has sometimes diverged from the traditional markets, especially during periods of rate adjustments. The current situation in 2024 suggests that this divergence may be occurring once again, echoing patterns seen in the past.
Historical Divergence Between BTC and SPX
In 2019, during a period of Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin broke away from its previous correlation with the S&P 500. While the two markets had been moving together before the cuts, but more volatility on BTC, the cryptocurrency saw a significant decline before bottoming out at around $4,800. At the same time, the S&P 500 dropped briefly and later continued its slow, steady climb.
This divergence, as noted by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, highlights a pattern that seems to repeat during such monetary shifts. In 2019, Bitcoin’s downturn was followed by a strong recovery, while the S&P 500 remained on a steady upward path.
As a reminder, in 2019, also a year that the Fed cut rates, #BTC diverged from #SPX as well.
So many people keep acting like this stuff is unprecedented and hard to believe, but the *exact* same thing happened last cycle. pic.twitter.com/hSmPn75ZcK
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 16, 2024
Notably, this behavior isn’t new to crypto markets. Cowen has pointed out that in times of economic uncertainty, Bitcoin tends to diverge from traditional financial markets as it reacts differently to risk and macroeconomic conditions. This suggests that the divergence seen in 2019 could be a roadmap for current trends in 2024.
A Repeating Cycle?
As market watchers speculate a similar divergence, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 seem to be taking shape once again. Bitcoin has shown signs of cooling off from its previous highs, while the S&P 500 continues to rise steadily.
This potential divergence appears reminiscent of the 2019 cycle, where Bitcoin experienced a decline before eventually stabilizing and entering a new uptrend. The parallels between 2019 and 2024 suggest that Bitcoin’s recent pullback could be temporary, with the possibility of a future rally as market conditions shift.
Macroeconomic Influence
Adding to Bitcoin’s outlook are favorable macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.9%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing a dovish monetary policy outlook. This report has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might halt its rate hikes or even consider a cut, which historically has benefited Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar and increasing demand for alternative assets.
Meanwhile, recent data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped to levels not seen since 2018. The reduction in available Bitcoin for trading suggests that investors are moving their holdings into cold storage, potentially reducing liquidity.
