In a notable diplomatic maneuver, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is set to return to India on June 21, marking her second visit within a fortnight. This swift succession of trips to New Delhi underscores the significance of India in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, particularly as Hasina prepares for a consequential state visit to China in July. With her visit, Hasina will become the first foreign leader to engage in a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his third term, creating a distinctive milestone for Indo-Bangladesh relations in a shifting regional context, while also marking her inaugural overseas State visit since assuming power for the fifth time in January 2024. Moreover, this will mark Hasina’s third trip to India since September 2023, following her visit to Delhi for the G20 Summit.
Balancing the Scales Between Giants
Prime Minister Hasina’s visit highlights a strategic attempt to balance relationships with the two regional powerhouses – India and China. This diplomatic ballet comes at a time when Dhaka is keenly aware of its geopolitical position. India’s Prime Minister Modi, having just begun his third term, is hosting Hasina in what can be interpreted as a signal of the importance India places on its neighbor to the east.
Bangladesh’s urgency in setting up this bilateral meeting before Hasina’s departure for China is telling. The move signifies Dhaka’s intent to assure New Delhi of its continued partnership even as it engages with Beijing, which has been aggressively expanding its influence through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s proposed $1 billion project to develop the Teesta River has raised concerns in India about the security implications, given the project’s proximity to the border.
Key Issues on the Table
The upcoming discussions between Hasina and Modi are anticipated to be multifaceted, addressing critical issues from economic cooperation to regional security. The development of the Teesta Special Economic Zone and the renewal of the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty are likely to be prominent topics, encompassing not only infrastructural and environmental concerns but also broader aspects of bilateral trade and resource management.
Food security will also be a crucial point of dialogue, with Bangladesh seeking to secure essential supplies from India, including wheat and onions. Additionally, the strategic management and potential development of Mongla Port, akin to Iran’s Chabahar and Myanmar’s Sittwe, underscores the depth of economic cooperation both nations are exploring.
Defense and Connectivity: A Broader Canvas
Defense and connectivity are anticipated to be key areas of focus, with discussions around a joint military exercise and the utilization of India’s $500 million line of credit to Bangladesh. The two leaders are set to review the progress of ongoing developmental projects, which include crucial road, rail, and connectivity initiatives aimed at bolstering bilateral ties.
This meeting will also serve as a platform for Modi and Hasina to assess the deteriorating security situation in neighboring Myanmar, where government troops have faced significant defeats at the hands of anti-junta resistance forces.
The China Factor in Bangladesh’s Growth
Since 2009, Prime Minister Hasina has adeptly balanced Bangladesh’s ties with both India and China, harnessing investments from each to foster national development. China’s engagement with Bangladesh significantly intensified following President Xi Jinping’s 2016 visit to Dhaka, where Beijing committed to $40 billion in investment projects. Of this, $26 billion is allocated for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, and it makes Bangladesh a crucial node in China’s ambitious infrastructure network aimed at expanding its economic and diplomatic reach. The remaining $14 billion is earmarked for joint venture projects- reflecting a robust bilateral partnership. These Chinese investments, second only to the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have propelled Bangladesh’s road and industrial infrastructure. It contributes substantially to the country’s economic transformation. Observers note that Hasina’s skillful diplomacy has enabled Bangladesh to benefit from China’s financial clout while maintaining its strategic ties with India, thus navigating a path of balanced development and regional influence.
A Diplomatic Tightrope
While Hasina’s visit underscores strong bilateral relations, it also comes at a time of growing criticism and an “India Out” campaign in Bangladesh. This movement, driven by a coalition of influencers and political activists, accuses India of backing Hasina’s government while allegedly turning a blind eye to democratic concerns within Bangladesh. This sentiment echoes the larger regional context where countries like the Maldives are witnessing shifts in their foreign policy alignments, tilting away from India towards China.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has downplayed the “India Out” campaigns, suggesting that geopolitical competition with China is an inevitable reality. However, for Bangladesh, navigating these waters requires a nuanced approach. Dhaka must leverage its strategic position to extract maximum benefit from both India and China while maintaining a delicate balance that safeguards its sovereignty and developmental aspirations.
Bangladesh perceives the upcoming visit as highly significant, and thus preparations for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s journey to Delhi have been underway for numerous months. In the midst of Indian elections, India’s Foreign Secretary, Vinay Kwatra, paid a visit to Dhaka in May to extend an official invitation to the Prime Minister.
Looking Ahead: Modi’s Reciprocal Visit
The mutual visits between Modi and Hasina highlight the interwoven destinies of India and Bangladesh. Modi’s forthcoming trip to Dhaka, at Hasina’s invitation, symbolizes the continuing dialogue and cooperation that both nations are committed to pursuing. This visit will not only be an opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties but also to address shared regional challenges and economic interests.
The Road Ahead
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s imminent visit to India is more than a diplomatic engagement; it is a strategic statement of intent. As Bangladesh walks the tightrope of regional diplomacy, this visit will be closely watched for signals on how Dhaka plans to navigate its complex relationships with both India and China. With critical discussions on defense, economic cooperation, and regional security on the agenda, the outcomes of this visit could have far-reaching implications for South Asia’s geopolitical landscape.
As Bangladesh tactfully maneuvers between the influential pulls of India and China, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s upcoming visit to New Delhi is poised to be a pivotal moment in the nation’s foreign policy narrative. The meeting’s success could set a precedent for balanced regional engagement, potentially reconfiguring the geostrategic environment of South Asia. For both Dhaka and New Delhi, the stakes have never been higher, and the world will be watching closely.
[Photo by Prime Minister’s Office, India, via Wikimedia Commons]
Md. Obaidullah is a Lecturer at the Department of Development Studies in Daffodil International University, Dhaka.
Dr. Monojit Das is an independent researcher on geopolitics and national security in India. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors.
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