- The 97th Academy Awards will premiere on Sunday.
- Prediction markets are picking “Anora” will win Best Picture.
- Polymarket correctly predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election win.
Betters are banking on Sean Baker’s “Anora” to win big at the 97th Academy Awards.
Hollywood stars will descend upon the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday to attend the Oscars. Emmy Award-winning late-night host Conan O’Brien will host the ceremony. There are nine films nominated for Best Picture this year, including “The Substance,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Wicked,” and “Emilia Pérez.”
Prediction markets have suggested that “Anora,” starring Mikey Madison, will take home the prize.
Prediction markets allow people to purchase and sell contracts based on the projected outcome of a specific event.
Events could be anything from daily weather predictions to who will win the 2024 US presidential election. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi correctly signaled Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris last November (although they got it wrong during the 2022 midterms).
On Kalshi, “Anora” is predicted to win at 65% at the time of writing.
Purchasing a “Yes” contract on Kalshi costs 65 cents, while a “No” contract costs 37 cents.
Users placed similar bets on Polymarket, where “Anora” is expected to win the award at 65%. On Polymarket, buying a “Yes” contract costs 65 cents, while a “No” contract costs 36 cents.
“Anora” premiered in 2024 at the 77th Cannes Film Festival. Since then, the film and its cast have snagged several awards. Madison won a BAFTA award for Best Leading Actress.
Both prediction markets placed political thriller “Conclave” and “The Brutalist” behind “Anora.”
Supporters of prediction markets believe they can be more accurate than traditional polls because they are quicker to adapt to new information and users are directly invested in the outcome.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said on an episode of The New York Times podcast, “Hard Fork,” last month that prediction markets are “the future.”
Representatives for FilmNation Entertainment, which produced “Anora,” did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
