Market Data 
- AUD/USD mildly declines to 0.6660 on Monday.
- Markets await latest RBA and Fed meeting minutes for additional guidance.
- On Monday, the US reported ISM PMIs that showed no surprises.
Monday’s session recorded a moderate slip in the Australian Dollar (AUD) value against the US Dollar. As a result of persistently high inflation in Australia and some signs of softening in the US, meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be closely watched this week. Labor market figures from June from the US are also due.
The Australian economy demonstrates some signs of weakness. However, the stubbornly high inflation is prompting the RBA to delay potential rate cuts. The RBA is one of the last G10 country central banks expected to issue rate cuts. This delay might further strengthen the Aussie.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie observes slight losses as market holds breath for packed week
- Australian Dollar’s value saw a slight increase because of the stubbornly high inflation figures that prevent the RBA from initiating rate cuts.
- Market predicts around 40% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike on the September 24 RBA meeting, extending to 50% leading up to November 5.
- In Australia, the May’s Retail Sales data will be closely observed, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The expectation is for a 0.3% MoM rise compared with 0.1% in April.
- Prospect of a Fed interest rate cut in September is now at 70% and will be guided by the data in the week ahead and Powell’s speech on Tuesday.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD sways between 0.6600-0.6700
From a technical outlook, the AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways since mid-May in the 0.6600-0.6700 range. Traders on either side are struggling to dominate the direction, while indicators remain flat. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6640 is acting as a robust support level, with further support seen below at 0.6620 and 0.6600. Descriptive resistance levels are situated at 0.6660, 0.6690, and 0.6700.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element in assessing the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels because low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given their significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
