- The Australian Dollar advances further due to hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA.
- RBA Governor Michele Bullock does not anticipate rate cuts in the near term.
- The US Dollar depreciates as traders fully price in a quarter basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock fuel the upside of the Aussie Dollar and underpin the AUD/USD pair.
RBA Governor Bullock stated on Friday that the Australian central bank remains focused on the potential upside risks to inflation and does not anticipate rate cuts in the near term. The board believes it has struck the right balance between controlling inflation and maintaining stability in the current economic climate, per ABC News.
Read the full article: RBA’s Bullock: Inflation remains too high
The US Dollar edges lower as traders fully price in a 25 basis point rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve for September. However, a 50 basis point cut remains a possibility, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 26% chance of such a move. Traders will also be observing the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, which is set to be released on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar edges higher due to hawkish RBA
- On Friday, US Retail Sales rose by 1.0% month-over-month in July, a significant rebound from June’s 0.2% decline, according to the US Census Bureau. This figure exceeded the forecasted increase of 0.3%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 10 came in at 227,000, better than the anticipated 235,000 and a decrease from the previous week’s 234,000.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced on Thursday that it will renew the medium-term lending facility funds maturing on August 15th later this month. The central bank also lent CNY 577.7 billion (USD 80.9 billion) through seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements at 1.7% in an open market operation, maintaining the previous rate, according to Reuters. Any change in the Chinese economy could impact the Australian market as both countries are close trade partners.
- China’s Retail Sales grew by 2.7% year-on-year in July, exceeding market forecasts of 2.6% and accelerating from June’s 17-month low of 2.0%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased by 5.1% year-on-year, falling short of the 5.2% expected and easing from the 5.3% growth seen in the previous month. This marks the third consecutive month of moderation in industrial output.
- Australian Employment Change is reported at 58.2K for July, surpassing the expected 20.0K and the previous reading of 52.3K. However, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.2%, exceeding the market expectation of remaining steady at 4.1%. Additionally, Consumer Inflation Expectations for August rose to 4.5%, up from the prior reading of 4.3%.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed growing concern on Wednesday about the labor market rather than inflation, noting recent improvements in price pressures alongside weak jobs data. Goolsbee added that the extent of rate cuts will be determined by the prevailing economic conditions, per Bloomberg.
- US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, slightly down from the 3% increase in June and below market expectations. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.2% year-over-year, a slight decrease from the 3.3% rise in June but aligned with market forecasts.
- On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that recent economic data has increased his confidence that the Fed can achieve its 2% inflation target. However, Bostic indicated that additional evidence is required before he would support a reduction in interest rates, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves above 0.6600
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6620 on Friday. According to daily chart analysis, the AUD/USD pair is testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel. A break below this level could indicate a weakening of the bullish trend. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 mark, supporting the current bullish momentum.
In terms of support, the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 0.6610, is the immediate support level for the AUD/USD pair. A break below this could lead the pair to test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6593, followed by the throwback level at 0.6575. Should the pair fall below this support zone, it could signal a bearish outlook, potentially pushing it toward the throwback level at 0.6470.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair might target the area near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.6720 level. A breakout above this could propel the pair toward its six-month high of 0.6798, recorded on July 11.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.08% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.07% | -0.12% | 0.09% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.07% | -0.07% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.16% | -0.01% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
