- The Australian Dollar advances ahead of Tuesday’s RBA policy decision.
- The RBA is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive meeting.
- The US Dollar declines as recent downbeat labor data fuels odds of a Fed rate cut in September.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers its recent losses ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for Tuesday. The RBA is widely anticipated to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive meeting. Traders will likely closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech, which may provide insights into the Board’s future policy direction.
The AUD faced challenges against the US Dollar (USD) due to central banks’ rapid policy adjustments and increasing fears of a hard landing for the US economy. Additionally, the second-quarter inflation data has diminished expectations for another RBA rate hike. Markets estimate an RBA rate cut in November, a move anticipated much earlier than previously forecasted for April next year.
The US Dollar loses ground as expectations grow for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74.5% probability of this cut occurring at the September meeting, a significant increase from the 11.4% chance reported a week earlier.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar advances ahead of RBA policy decision
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed increased confidence on Monday that US inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target, according to Reuters. Daly noted that “risks to the Fed’s mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is openness to the possibility of cutting rates in upcoming meetings.”
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that the US central bank is prepared to act if economic or financial conditions worsen. Goolsbee emphasized, “We’re forward-looking about it, and so if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.” according to Reuters.
- US ISM Services PMI rose to 51.4 in July, from the previous reading of 48.8 reading. The index has exceeded the market expectation of 51.0 reading.
- The Judo Bank Australia Composite PMI dropped to 49.9 in July from 50.2 in June, falling below the neutral 50 mark for the first time since January. The Services PMI decreased to 50.4 in July from 51.8 in June. While this represents the sixth consecutive month of expansion in services activity, the growth rate was marginal and the slowest observed in this sequence.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 114K in July from the previous month of 179K (revised down from 206K). This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 175K, data showed on Friday.
- US Average Hourly Earnings eased to 0.2% month-over-month in the same reported period, below the market consensus of 0.3%. On an annual basis, the figure decreased to 3.6% from the previous reading of 3.8%.
- On Tuesday, China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.1 in July, from June’s 51.2 reading. The index has exceeded the market expectation of a 51.4 reading. Last week, Caixin Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 49.8 for July, falling short of the expected reading of 51.5 and the previous reading of 51.8. Since both nations are close trade partners, volatility in the Chinese economy can significantly impact the Australian market.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves above 0.6500
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6520 on Tuesday. The daily chart analysis shows that the AUD/USD pair has breached above the descending channel, indicating a weakening of a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly up the oversold 30 level, which suggests a potential for more upward correction.
The AUD/USD pair could find immediate support around the throwback support of 0.6470 level, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel around the level of 0.6450
On the upside, resistance is first encountered at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6540, followed by the “throwback support turned resistance” at 0.6575 level. A breakout above the latter could propel the AUD/USD pair toward a six-month high of 0.6798.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.32% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.14% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.25% | -0.08% | -0.27% | -0.19% | 0.33% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.28% | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.16% | 0.30% | |
| JPY | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.44% | -0.59% | -0.54% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.44% | -0.19% | -0.11% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.59% | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.54% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.16% | 0.54% | 0.11% | -0.09% | 0.51% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.54% | -0.51% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
