- AUD/USD draws support from a softer USD downtick, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- The Fed’s hawkish stance and a weaker risk tone lend support to the safe-haven buck.
- The RBA’s dovish shift and China’s economic woes also contribute to capping the pair.
- Traders look to the US PCE Price Index for short-term opportunities later this Friday.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.6215 area on Friday and turns positive for the second successive day on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. Spot prices currently trade around the mid-0.6200s and remain close to the lowest level since October 2022 touched on Thursday.
A modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields keeps a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) rally to a two-year peak, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the AUD/USD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish signal that it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off mood could underpin the safe-haven buck and cap further gains for the risk-sensitive Aussie.
Investors remain concerned about persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East. Apart from this, worries about US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, along with the threat of a partial US government shutdown at the end of the day on Friday, take its toll on the global risk sentiment. Furthermore, China’s economic woes and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish shift should contribute to keeping a lid on the AUD/USD pair.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful recovery. Next on tap is the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the early North American session. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair heading into the weekend.
Economic Indicator
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
