Prominent crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto warns of potential 74% drop in XRP price, identifying what the asset must do to avoid the crash.
The updated analysis comes on the back of the recent market-wide turbulence that has triggered a 5.50% slump in XRP price this week. EGRAG believes XRP’s next major challenge lies at $3.9, a resistance level he links to a structure in his analysis called “Fork C.”
XRP Could Crash 74% after Testing Fork C
According to him, historical data shows that this Fork C has been a major roadblock for nearly a decade. Notably, XRP has experienced significant corrections upon hitting resistance levels along this area in the past.
Specifically, sharp drops occurred in December 2015 (-89.59%), May 2017 (-68.97%), September 2018 (-64.35%), and April 2021 (-73.39%). The average decline was 74%, a pattern that could repeat if XRP fails to break Fork C convincingly, potentially leading to $1.
XRP 1W Chart | EGRAG Crypto
EGRAG emphasized that avoiding this crash requires XRP to close above $4 on a weekly chart, with clear and strong confirmation, when it comes face-to-face with the Fork C. This crucial breakout must occur before March 10, 2025.
The timeline is particularly important due to the lunar eclipse on March 14, which EGRAG notes has historically correlated with market volatility and price drops.
Despite these concerns, the analyst maintains a bullish long-term outlook for XRP. He suggests that if the asset can overcome Fork C, it could surge to his ultimate target of $13 to $15. However, achieving this milestone will not be straightforward, as market makers often create hurdles that complicate upward movements.
Previous Analysis
This updated warning builds on EGRAG’s earlier “Bent Fork” report, first introduced in mid-2023 when XRP traded at $0.51. For context, the framework identifies key levels where resistance and support converge.
Fork A acted as a support zone, while Forks B, C, and D represented progressively higher resistance levels. According to this model, XRP’s journey involves breaking through these resistance zones to reach its long-term price targets.
Notably, XRP has followed this trajectory so far. In November 2024, the asset broke through Fork B at $1.3, rallying to $1.5. By December, XRP reached as high as $2.9 before facing resistance, as it looked to challenge Fork C.
Despite the pullback, XRP still has its eyes set on Fork C, as it now leverages Fork B as immediate support. Interestingly, EGRAG’s updated analysis now places Fork C at $3.9, confirming it as the next major hurdle. At press time, XRP trades for $2.27, down 2.84% over the past 24 hours.
