Investment growth in AI-related sectors remains robust, especially for semiconductor companies, Goldman Sachs economists said in a note.
Equity markets are anticipating a roughly 50% revenue growth for these firms from current levels by the end of 2025.
Since the launch of ChatGPT, equity markets have increased their 2025 revenue projections for AI hardware enablers by $330 billion, equivalent to 1.2% of US GDP, up from $250 billion a quarter ago.
“These upgrades are expected to broaden from semiconductor and cloud firms to the broader datacenter stack by 2025H2,” economists wrote in a note.
“While AI-related investment is not yet visible in national accounts data, manufacturers’ shipments for AI-related components have continued to pick up in the US and Japan over the past quarter,” they added.
Meanwhile, AI adoption by US firms remains modest, with only 5% currently using AI in production, Goldman noted.
While this share has increased slightly (+0.2 percentage points) since last quarter, sectors like arts and entertainment, professional services, and retail trade have seen adoption rates rise by at least 1 percentage point.
In contrast, the information, administrative, and educational sectors reported declines of at least 1 percentage point. Cloud-related firms anticipate the highest increase in AI adoption over the next six months, the note states.
Lastly, economists said AI’s impact on the labor market has been minimal. AI-related job openings are slowly increasing, layoff announcements remain low, and the unemployment rate for AI-exposed positions has slightly decreased compared to the wider unemployment rate.
