At the height of his powers, Barry Bonds was an unstoppable force. Every season from 1992 through 2005, he had an OPS in excess of 1.000 (his low was 1.006, and his high was 1.422). In 2002, the year after he hit 73 home runs, he had a 268 OPS+ (meaning he was 168% better than the average player). No one will probably ever match the production or output he had over that period of time.
But right now we have a player who is giving Bonds a run for his money. From 2001 through 2004, Bonds’ average slash line was .347/.547/.834. But, Bonds did all of that in a hitting-rich environment. Those four years had league-wide batting averages of .264, .261, .264, and .266, while MLB slugged roughly .425.
Right now, what Aaron Judge is doing to MLB pitching, and what he is doing in and for the sport, actually may be more impressive. In a period of low offensive production (current MLB slash line: .241/.315/.391), Judge is redefining the game. He is far and away the best and most dangerous hitter playing today.
Prior to this week, only four players ever had a .425 batting average and 10 home runs entering May: Tony Pérez (1970), Larry Walker (1997), Barry Bonds (2004), and Cody Bellinger (2019). All but Pérez won the MVP that season (Pérez came in third behind Johnny Bench and Billy Williams). Judge joined this exclusive club when the calendar flipped on Thursday.
Over his past 162 games, Judge has a slash line of .369/.494/.774, for an OPS of 1.262. That is pretty darned close to Bonds’ 2003 season (.341/.529/.749/1.278). That year Bonds hit 45 dingers, while Judge has slammed 64 over his past 162. But, in 2003, the league as a whole was hitting .264, or 23 points better than this season. And the league was slugging .422, which is 31 points higher than the current average.
And Judge is doing all of this against considerably better pitching. In 2003, the league-wide ERA was 4.39, with 4.73 runs/game. This year that ERA is down to 4.02, and only 4.34 runs are being scored per game. In 2003, the average major league fastball was less than 90 MPH; today it is more than 94 MPH. And pitchers have more pitches in their arsenal and better spin rate with each one. In short, hitting is harder than ever.
It is nice to analyze Judge over his past 162 games, as he started off last year with a whimper. In his first 31 games of 2024, he hit .207 and had six home runs. He finished the season hitting .322, with 58 homers. This year, he wanted to get off to a strong start, and in his first 31 games of 2025, all he did was slash .427/.521/.761, with 10 homers.
If we tighten up the window:
If we extrapolate based on his start, Judge is on pace for a 16.7 fWAR season. To put that into perspective, in 1923, Babe Ruth’s best season by that metric, he accumulated only 14.7 fWAR (which is the current all-time record).
And there is reason to believe that Judge may only get better as the season wears on (although the batting average is sure to come down – a .506 BAbip is not sustainable). His isolated power is currently .333, his HR% is 7.1, his BB% is 15.0, and his hard hit percentage is 57.3. All of these numbers are his lowest since 2021. And, just to add some additional measurements, through 31 games, this slugger’s groundball percentage is the highest and his flyball percentage the lowest since, you guessed it, 2021. He is hitting 61.8% of his balls to center field. Sure, someone with Judge’s power can hit the ball out to all fields, but when he is pulling less than 25% of the balls he puts in play (the last two seasons he did so nearly 32% of the time), he is not optimizing his strengths nor his chances to be productive.
We are about one-fifth of the way through the season, and the weather is just starting to warm up. Aaron Judge is already hot. His start is, in a word, “Bondsian.” While he may not hit 73 home runs when all is said and done, he may hit 63 to break his own American League record. He may win a batting title like Bonds did in 2002 and 2004 (he currently has a 69 point cushion on Paul Goldschmidt, who doesn’t figure to hit .361 all season); and he might just win the Triple Crown.
Aaron Judge is appointment viewing. Don’t leave your seat when he is due to bat.
