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Cembalest, who chairs the company’s market and investment strategy, made the prediction in his list of “top 10 possible surprises for 2024.” The list was published in JPMorgan Asset Management’s January 1 “Eye on the Market Outlook.”
“President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee,” Cembalest wrote.
In his prediction, Cembalest didn’t specify the reasons for Biden’s withdrawal. However, he did note that the president “has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration.”
On Sunday, Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.
It remains unclear how the Democratic Party will pick Biden’s replacement. Some have called for an open convention where potential contenders can fight it out, while others are advocating for Harris to take over Biden’s campaign and the nomination immediately.
That said, Biden’s departure from the race wasn’t the only interesting prediction Cembalest made. His list, which included technical forecasts on foreign currencies and the loan market, also touched on technological and geopolitical developments.
For one, Cembalest wrote in his list that “the driverless car backlash is coming.”
“I believe that a possible backlash is coming from citizens who believe, as in the case of the despised urban scooter plague, that convenience for some results in dangers and inconvenience for others,” he wrote, citing the declining stock prices for companies selling LiDAR, a type of sensor used by self-driving cars.
If Cembalest is right on that count, that would be a huge bummer for EV entrepreneurs like Elon Musk. Musk has bet Tesla’s future on a flashy robotaxi concept that is set to be unveiled in October.
On the geopolitical front, Cembalest said that we shouldn’t expect a resolution to the Ukraine war anytime soon.
“Despite Russia reportedly losing 87% of its prewar active troops (315,000 killed or injured) and two-thirds of its tanks, there is no ceasefire, and the war drags on for another year,” he wrote in January.
Cembalest’s prediction aligns with what the Biden administration has said about the conflict.
In May, US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said the Ukrainians will be able to “hold the line” this year and could look to mount a counteroffensive in 2025.
US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli told the Armed Services Committee during an April hearing that Russia’s army is now 15% bigger than when it invaded Ukraine.
“Over the past year, Russia increased its front-line troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000,” Cavoli said in his April 11 statement to Congress. “Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded.”
Representatives for Cembalest at JPMorgan Asset Management did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.
