Vice President Kamala Harris will beat former President Donald Trump this November, says the historian who successfully predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections since 1984.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University, told The New York Times in a video interview that aired on Thursday.
Lichtman, whose “Keys to the White House” prediction model consists of 13 true-or-false questions, said in the interview that eight keys were in Harris’ favor.
Trump, Lichtman said, had three keys going for him — one, Harris isn’t an incumbent; two, Harris isn’t, in his opinion, a “once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate”; and three, the Democratic Party lost control of the House during the midterm elections in 2022.
But that was outnumbered by eight other keys.
Besides benefiting from the positive short- and long-term economic conditions as well as legislative accomplishments under President Joe Biden’s administration, Harris’ candidacy wasn’t dogged by any scandals or ongoing social unrest, Lichtman said.
In addition, Harris did not have to go through a primary contest to succeed Biden as nominee, he added. Lichtman said that it helped that she was facing off against Trump, who “only appeals to a narrow base.”
Harris, he said, also didn’t have a third-party challenger since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign last month.
The last two keys — on foreign policy failures and successes — wouldn’t matter as much since Trump would still only have five keys even if they were against Harris, Lichtman said.
Lichtman’s assessment marks a slight shift from his last prediction in July when he told The Wall Street Journal that the Democratic Party should stick with Biden if they wanted to retain the White House.
“Biden running checks off two keys right. Biden steps aside, they lose obviously the incumbency and its not at all clear that there wouldn’t be a big party fight,” he said then.
Although Biden did eventually drop out, Harris was able to avert a primary contest. Besides securing Biden’s endorsement, Harris was able to get her party to unite around her in short order.
To be sure, Lichtman’s predictions haven’t always been on the money. He got the 2000 election wrong when he predicted a victory for Al Gore instead of the eventual contender, George W. Bush.
That has been the only election outcome Lichtman got wrong since he started giving predictions in the 1984 election.
Representatives for the Harris campaign didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.
