With the MLB trade deadline still weeks away, the San Diego Padres have already pulled off two major trade blockbusters, adding reigning batting champion Luis Arraez in May and frontline starter Dylan Cease in March.
But the Padres can hardly afford to stop there. The front office has made a massive financial commitment to a handful of star players with largely diminishing returns, making the upcoming deadline one of its last chances to cash in on the spending.
Leading the front office since 2014, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has committed more than $1.25 billion to six players over the next decade. Joe Musgrove has a five-year, $100 million contract that runs through 2027; Yu Darvish has a six-year, $108 million contract that runs through 2028; Jake Cronenworth has a seven-year, $80 million contract that runs through 2030; Manny Machado has an 11-year, $350 million contract that runs through 2033; Xander Bogaerts has an 11-year, $280 million contract that runs through 2033; and Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 14-year, $340 million contract through 2034.
Those figures mean that, as of now, the Padres rank 15th in spending this season but are currently on the hook for MLB’s largest payrolls in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. But the productive windows for most of those players appear to be closing quickly and this could be one of the final chances to capitalize on the commitment.
Tatis, for one, could still have his best years ahead. In 308 at bats this season, he improved on the numbers that earned him MVP votes last season with a .279/.354/.821 slash line before going down with an injury that might keep him out until late July. Cronenworth has been consistent with a .251/.330/.421 career slash line. Machado has hit for a middling .268/.318/.408 and leads MLB in double plays grounded into. Bogaerts, who fractured his shoulder in May, was moved out of the shortstop position to start this season and has a .219 batting average since. Darvish and Musgrove are both on the injured list.
The Padres have been buoyed by strong performances from some of its lesser-paid players. As of this writing, they have accumulated a winning record and sit firmly within a Wild Card playoff spot.
Outfielder Jurickson Profar, earning $1 million on a single-year deal, leads the National league in on-base percentage. Arraez, who is earning just $588,744 this year with another year of arbitration eligibility ahead, is leading all of MLB in total hits. Jackson Merrill, earning $740,000 this season, has made a strong rookie-of-the-year case. Matt Waldron, earning $741,800 in his first year of arbitration, has confounded hitters with his unique knuckleball.
Preller’s long-term financial commitments have built an urgency to win, though it has been the budget successes that have put this team in a position to do so.
“They know when they signed these contracts, it’s go time now. You’ve got to win,” New York Post columnist Joel Sherman said in a recent appearance on MLB Network. “I think AJ Preller is a go GM at all times anyway. There’s probably some pressure on his job, at some point this has to work when so much is spent.”
The Padres have been hitting well, leading the National League in hits and batting average and ranking within the top-five for on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage. But pitching seems to be a clear need as the team sits toward the bottom of the league in ERA and opposing batting average.
Can Preller really do more to improve the roster? It seems he has prospect depth to leverage, though adding even more to its long-term financial commitments might be out of the question.
“San Diego currently has four Top 100 prospects — Ethan Salas (No. 4), left-hander Robby Snelling (No. 24), right-hander Dylan Lesko (No. 68) and shortstop Leodalis De Vries (No. 78) — but is there an arm available that would prompt Preller to move anyone from that quartet?” asked MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. “The Padres are also unlikely to take on any big salaries, as they’re believed to be trying to stay below the CBT threshold.”
As it’s been the team’s smaller salaries that have been driving the season’s success, working within that financial constraint might be just what the Padres need to realize their long-term commitments now.
